Batting Orders

During Spring Training, a lot was made of where Daniel Murphy would hit in the line up.  Wether or not he would supplant Luis Castillo as the #2 hitter.  There were even some discussions about moving Jose Reyes to the #3 spot.  Does any of it really matter?

If you have some time, read this article.  It’s wordy but very interesting.

The main idea behind the article, is that there are statistical evaluations you can use to set a more effective line up.  Having a leadoff hitter that is very fast, but has a very bad on base percentage (see Jose Reyes) can actually lead to a less effective line up.  Here is the breakdown for what you’d like to see from each of your hitters

1) Getting on base is everything. To much lesser extent, home run hitters should not lead off. Stolen base ability is irrelevant.

2) Similar to the leadoff hitter, but not quite as crucial to get on base; some power is also desirable.

3) Should have fair power, be able to draw walks, and not strike out much.

4) Highest slugging average; also has a good on base percentage and is not necessarily the best home run hitter.

5) Good power; secondarily puts ball in play (i.e. does not walk or strike out a lot).

6) Hardest spot to characterize and probably least critical. Probably want to use player who doesnít fit well in other positions. Base stealing ability is a small plus.

7-9) Decreasing overall abilities as hitters as characterized by on base percentage and measures of power hitting.

Let’s take this and apply it to the Mets lineup to see what it should look like according to this theory.

Yesterday’s Lineup was

1. Jose Reyes

2. Daniel Murphy

3. Carlos Beltran

4. Carlos Delgado

5. David Wright

6. Ryan Church

7. Ramon Castro

8. Luis Castillo

9. John Maine

The modified lineup (to the best of my estimation based on season stats so far)

1. Luis Castillo.      .412 OB% with no home run power

2. David Wright      Too many Ks to hit 3rd or 5th, decent OB%, power

3. Jose Reyes        Fair power, 13 walks, 12 strikeouts

4. Carlos Beltran    By far highest SLG% on the team at .611 and OB% at .500

5. Daniel Murphy    Decent Power, Does not walk or strike out a lot

6. Ryan Church     Best base stealer of the remaining 3

7. Carlos Delgado  Most Power

8. Ramon Castro   All that’s left

9. John Maine

It’s an interesting look at building a lineup, and possibly a team to fit these categories.  The article mentions that in 23 of the 26 cases run in the simulation, the line up produced more runs per season.  10 more runs per season usually translates into one extra win.  Mets fans can tell you the value of one extra win.  Another interesting idea is to not have a set line up, but a dynamic one.  Updating the batting order based on statistical changes on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.  We have the technology to analyze the hell out of baseball, why not use it?

Your thoughts?