Good 3-0 win today, with Johan going 7 strong (5/3 K:BB ratio) and putting the Mets on his back. 3 runs-an Alex Cora RBI single, an Ike Davis homer, and a Josh Thole RBI single-were enough to get the job done.
I didn’t watch any of today’s game, but Santana seems to have his old stuff back. In his last 21 inning he’s struck out 17 batters and allowed just a run. His ERA stands at 2.98, surprising considering how much everyone (myself included) was on him.
The Mets finish their 2-week stretch running into the break at 5-9. Yeah, it’s not great, but every team has peaks and valleys. The Mets fans bashing the team after yesterday’s loss just need to cool out; we all do. Did anyone think the Mets would be 48-40, honestly?
Anyway, it’s been made clear that on Thursday, Beltran will return to center field and the cleanup spot, with Angel Pagan presumably hitting second (depending on Reyes’ health) and playing right field.
Angel Pagan has been nothing short of a miracle (I’ll refrain from using any puns) since he was recalled for the Mets’ West Coast swing last May. First game back, he did collide with Beltran on a fly ball, and that really started him off on a bad note in my book, but Pagan has won me three times over. We look at a guy who has come a long, long way since really hitting journeyman status heading into the beginning of last year.
In 88 games last year, Pagan hit at a slash line of .306/.350/.487 (with a wRC+ of 121), and in 79 games this year, he’s hit at .311/.368/.464 (131 wRC+). As a Met, in 198 games and 806 plate appearances, Pagan has hit .304 with an above-average on-base percentage and a solid slugging percentage for a speedy centerfielder. He’s become an adept base-stealer, with 40 as a Met, and his running game improves every day. And he’s been awesome on defense. He’s got an average arm, I’d say, but has unbelievable range. At this point, I’d say he has better range than Beltran, and UZR metrics show how good Pagan is. He’s been 9 runs above average in his career in centerfield, with a UZR/150 of 7.2. That’s stellar. Additionally, the “baseball IQ” everyone ripped him for last year has vastly improved. I’d say he’s made 1 or 2 bad mistakes on the bases all year. I can accept that considering how good this guy is. I think we’re seeing his ceiling, but considering that he didn’t really “make it” until last year, he’s probably smack in the middle of his prime right now.
Logically, Pagan would probably be a better pick than Beltran in center, but realistically, that won’t happen. But this guy really is a gift. And considering the last full season, it’s not unfair to put him in the top tier of centerfielders. Offensively, he compares to Brett Gardner and Shane Victorino. Guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Colby Rasmus, and Vernon Wells have been better offensively, but aside from Franklin Gutierrez, it doesn’t get much better defensively. Oh, and by the way, I mentioned that his arm was “average…” but that was before I checked up on his ARM score on Fangraphs, which, at 3.4 runs saved, ranks at the top of CF’s in baseball. Jeff Francoeur is tops in baseball at 3.8. As such, with their current lineup, the Mets have the first and third best arms in the game in terms of runs saved.
Beltran’s arm has been about average (right around 0) for the past few years, but he has a reputation that prevents guys from running on him. And he’s saved runs every year in his career on defense except for 2005, easily his worst season as a Major Leaguer.
The whole point is, Beltran’s return, combined with Pagan’s emergence, and maybe the wish of Bay’s return to being good, could really put the Mets in a great position.
