Trouble brewing in Mets land, but plenty of reasons to believe


Yeah, things are ugly right now.

The Mets were swept by one of the worst teams in the league-a team that could hit, but cannot pitch at all. This is on the heels of a series loss to the Giants and general poor play by the Mets (series losses to the Marlins, Reds, and Braves, and a four-game split with the Nats) since Interleague Play ended.

What’s puzzling is how cold the Mets lineup has gone since Beltran returned. One doesn’t affect the other-to assert that it’s Beltran’s fault is a picture perfect example of theĀ post ergo propter hoc logic fallacy (the idea that because thing A came before thing B, thing A caused thing B). Castillo’s return hasn’t meant much-it hurts the defense a bit, but once Castillo starts hitting he’s a boon in the eighth spot.

The Mets are pitching pretty well but absolutely cannot hit. Outside of a handful of solo homers, they have been absolutely unable to drive in runs. They are 5-33 with runners in scoring position in the second half-a .150 batting average. Yikes.

As far as pitching goes, Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey, and Jon Niese have been reliable for the past month, while Mike Pelfrey and Hisanori Takahashi have been the exact opposite. Pelfrey has been historically bad, with a WHIP of 3 in his last five starts, and Takahashi, outside of 2 starts against the Yankees, has ranged from mediocre to awful. From what I see, he’s a guy who can’t go through a lineup more than once, A.K.A., a relief pitcher.

As far as hitting goes…well, pretty much everyone seems cold. Angel Pagan has been hitting, but outside of him, no one else is doing anything. Ike Davis was hot in the Giants series, but that was good for nothing. David Wright’s had a handful of hits, as has Reyes, but it seems whenever one guy hits, it’s him and him alone. Solo homers have seemed like all the Mets can muster up.

What do you do here? What I argue is met with controversy, but you’ve got to ride it out. I’ve heard a few names in the trade market: Dan Uggla and Prince Fielder. However, both would command a king’s ransom and are unlikely to be traded, particularly Uggla. Fielder in particular would surely demand Ike Davis-and in my opinion, based on his rookie numbers, there isn’t good reason to make that swap. Fielder’s a much more prolific hitter, but he’s got weight and attitude issues. Ike’s also a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman.

The only way I’d really trade Ike, maybe, is if I could get Dan Haren, who’s easily the most valuable pitcher on the market, probably the most valuable player available through trade since Johan Santana, considering his age and reasonable contract as well as a flawless delivery. He knows how to pitch and I’d LOVE to have him on my team, and would trade anyone in the farm system for him. It seems unlikely, though-Arizona is demanding a ton for him and the Mets frankly aren’t creative enough to make such an acquisition. They might have caught lightning in a bottle when they were able to pull off the Santana deal.

Ted Lilly seems like the guy the Mets are most likely to add, probably a 50-50 shot that it happens. The word today also is that Jeff Francoeur could be traded by Monday, with Jeremy Affeldt of the Giants being a possible target. Makes perfect sense, seeing as Francoeur wants to play every day but is the odd man out in New York, and the Mets need bullpen help. Octavio Dotel is also a possibility.

I will regurgitate again, though, that Mets fans (who are going absolutely insane right now) tend to overreact to everything. Entire lineups can go into slumps-see the Phillies earlier this year. They won’t hit like this for the whole year. And the Mets won’t play this terribly the whole year. On the other hand, they won’t play as well as they did for that stretch through June. It’s always going to be somewhere in between. Right now, they’re in the toughest part of their schedule. Midway through August, it’s going to get much easier. But they can’t fall far behind and have a lot of catching up to do. They need to tread water here, get through it somewhere around .500. At three games above, they can afford to stay around there against tough teams. They head into a huge series with the Dodgers where they have to turn it around. When you’ve just gotten swept by the Diamondbacks, you’re definitely on the brink 95 games in. The Dodgers are reeling, too, and both teams will come in hungry to win.

Jason Bay, he of the Golden Sombrero last night, will sit today, as will Beltran and Barajas (Barajas not so much sitting as it is the best catcher playing over him, though Jerry doesn’t comprehend that yet). Chris Carter will play left, with Francoeur in right.

Keep in mind that who knows, Jason Bay could light up all of a sudden. Imagine if he caught fire!

Let’s go Mets!