Disgruntled Mets Fan

Joe Stracci touches on Bill Simmons‘ recent article about Big Papi.  Both are great reads.

As a long time Howard Stern listener, I was happy to hear that Gary “Baba Booey” Dell’Abate would be throwing out the first pitch at the Mets game this past Saturday.  I heard all the stories about Gary being so nervous about the pitch that he had hired a coach to help refine his form.  He even said on Thursday, that he threw 100 balls and only 3 of them were bad throws.  Based on what he produced on the mound on Saturday, I think he meant only 3 were good.  It was one of the worst first pitches I’ve ever seen in my life.

Enjoy

To quote the great Artie Lange, when mentioning that Gary threw out the pitch to raise money for Autism awareness, “Gary was nice, he threw out the pitch like he was Autistic”.

The LA Times broke the story today that Manny Ramirez will be suspended for 50 games after testing positive on a recent drug test!

This should bring the Dodgers back down to earth a bit.

During Spring Training, a lot was made of where Daniel Murphy would hit in the line up.  Wether or not he would supplant Luis Castillo as the #2 hitter.  There were even some discussions about moving Jose Reyes to the #3 spot.  Does any of it really matter?

If you have some time, read this article.  It’s wordy but very interesting.

The main idea behind the article, is that there are statistical evaluations you can use to set a more effective line up.  Having a leadoff hitter that is very fast, but has a very bad on base percentage (see Jose Reyes) can actually lead to a less effective line up.  Here is the breakdown for what you’d like to see from each of your hitters

1) Getting on base is everything. To much lesser extent, home run hitters should not lead off. Stolen base ability is irrelevant.

2) Similar to the leadoff hitter, but not quite as crucial to get on base; some power is also desirable.

3) Should have fair power, be able to draw walks, and not strike out much.

4) Highest slugging average; also has a good on base percentage and is not necessarily the best home run hitter.

5) Good power; secondarily puts ball in play (i.e. does not walk or strike out a lot).

6) Hardest spot to characterize and probably least critical. Probably want to use player who doesnít fit well in other positions. Base stealing ability is a small plus.

7-9) Decreasing overall abilities as hitters as characterized by on base percentage and measures of power hitting.

Let’s take this and apply it to the Mets lineup to see what it should look like according to this theory.

Yesterday’s Lineup was

1. Jose Reyes

2. Daniel Murphy

3. Carlos Beltran

4. Carlos Delgado

5. David Wright

6. Ryan Church

7. Ramon Castro

8. Luis Castillo

9. John Maine

The modified lineup (to the best of my estimation based on season stats so far)

1. Luis Castillo.      .412 OB% with no home run power

2. David Wright      Too many Ks to hit 3rd or 5th, decent OB%, power

3. Jose Reyes        Fair power, 13 walks, 12 strikeouts

4. Carlos Beltran    By far highest SLG% on the team at .611 and OB% at .500

5. Daniel Murphy    Decent Power, Does not walk or strike out a lot

6. Ryan Church     Best base stealer of the remaining 3

7. Carlos Delgado  Most Power

8. Ramon Castro   All that’s left

9. John Maine

It’s an interesting look at building a lineup, and possibly a team to fit these categories.  The article mentions that in 23 of the 26 cases run in the simulation, the line up produced more runs per season.  10 more runs per season usually translates into one extra win.  Mets fans can tell you the value of one extra win.  Another interesting idea is to not have a set line up, but a dynamic one.  Updating the batting order based on statistical changes on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.  We have the technology to analyze the hell out of baseball, why not use it?

Your thoughts?

Chipper Jones is chosen as a favorite player

With all the talk about The Jackie Robinson Rotunda at Citi Field during the time around the Home Opener this season, I heard it mentioned a bunch of times that Jackie Robinson stole home 19 times in his career.  Seeing as how stealing home doesn’t happen a lot these days, I figured 19 was pretty close to a career high.  Baseball-Almanac.com shows that Ty Cobb has the all time record with 54.  Even swiping home 8 times in one season.
Watching Jacoby Ellsbury steal home last night made me think.  Why has stealing home become a lost art?  The crowd at Fenway was absolutely electrified after the play, and the opposing pitcher, Andy Pettite seemed completely out of sorts, for at least the next few batters.  There are enough players in the Majors with enough speed to pull this move off.  There are enough defenses that play the shift against left handed hitters, which leaves the third baseman playing more of a short stop position.  Having the third baseman so far away allows the runner on third to walk halfway down the line without worrying about getting picked off.  Is this not a risk worth taking with two out and a man on third?  I’m not saying it’s something you should try every time, but there are certain situations where it might be warranted.