Disgruntled Mets Fan

According to a Tweet from Jon Heyman, the Mets are serious about batting Jose Reyes 3rd and will do so until Carlos Beltran returns.

A projected Opening Day ‘10 lineup:
1. Angel Pagan
2. Luis Castillo
3. Jose Reyes
4. Jason Bay
5. David Wright
6. Daniel Murphy
7. Jeff Francoeur
8. Rod Barajas
9. Johan Santana

Sooo…there you have it. What do I think? Stranger things have happened, and it could be worse. Something about batting Jose third interests me…for example, look at Hanley Ramirez. After hitting leadoff for his whole career, he switched to batting third last year. Despite lower power numbers and steals, Hanley hit for by far the highest average of his career.

Jose Reyes is certainly a different player. Hanley is much more powerful and will likely further develop into more of an A-Rod type player while Reyes is in his own category, perhaps more like Jimmy Rollins (but with a higher ceiling across all the tools except power). However, I do think batting Reyes third can make him an all-around better player. I think he will hit for more average batting third; he will take fewer risks and learn to play more smartly; he will probably learn to hit for more power as well as he learns to drive the ball and drive in more runs as opposed to getting on base and wreaking havoc that way. As a leadoff hitter, Reyes would usually be around a .300 average with 15 homers and 50 steals; as a 3rd hitter, it’s not outlandish to say that he would be more along the lines of .315 with 20 or more homers and 35 to 45 steals.

In terms of the Mets lineup, it does make the lineup much deeper. Instead of a large drop off after the 4th spot (Wright to Murphy) you move that drop-off back a spot and now you have five hitters at the top of the lineup that are on-base machines. When this happens, you create more opportunities for the bottom of the lineup to drive in runs. Furthermore, after the first inning, the top of the order doesn’t matter as much, because different batters will lead off innings. Reyes may lose a few at-bats, but ultimately, he will only truly HAVE to be a different player once a game. You also get a “triple lead-off” with your first three hitters, when can be beneficial.

I realize in writing this post than in my attempt to analyze the decision, I’m in support of it unconsciously. I suppose this is true; ultimately, it may turn out to be more out of curiosity than anything. Until I’m proven wrong, though, I will believe as fact that Reyes will always be better suited to bat first.

A lot of people, myself included, are giving the Mets somewhat of a pass for this abysmal season due to the $90 million on the disabled list.  It’s hard to find someone to blame (except maybe the trainers) when the team taking the field doesn’t even resemble the team that took the field at the beginning of the season.

The truth of the matter is, the Mets injuries may be just what the doctor ordered for the organization.  It may be masking a failure that was coming anyway.

The pitching staff, save for Johan Santana who was pitching through injury for half the season, has completely underachieved.

Mike Pelfrey is the only pitcher in the original starting 5 that has an ERA under 5.0, and if he continues to pitch this season there’s no guarantee it will stay that way.

The fifth starter, a spot that may not have a lot of importance on a deep staff, should have been doubly important to the Mets, who went into the season with one ace and three number three starters.

The organization addressed the problem with a trio of over-the-hill or never-was starters, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia.  Garcia was cut in April, Hernandez was cut this month, and Redding is now the third starter due to injury.

I know you can’t plan for this many injuries, but my point is the starting rotation was weak before the season started.

There was only a small sample of how the team would fare if all their pieces were in place this year.

Carlos Delgado went on the DL on May 11th.  The team had a .548 winning percentage with a 17-14 record.  Delgado’s bat is one the Mets haven’t been able to replace all season, as is evident by their glaring lack of power in the middle of the line up.

By extrapolating that winning percentage out to today, and the Mets would be sitting in second place with a record of 70-57.  Sure it’s better than what they’ve got now, but they’d still be trailing the Phillies.

Jose Reyes went down ten days later, but he was not exactly lighting the field on fire in his limited time before his injury.  He was only batting .279 with a .355 OBP in 36 games while swiping 11 bases.  Sure, it’s good production, but nothing to write home about.

Alex Cora’s numbers filling in at short stop were similar enough to make Reyes’ absence a little easier to deal with, and Angel Pagan’s emergence as a solid lead-off hitter made it even easier.

The Mets were able to stay somewhat competitive, staying at or around .500 ball, showing moments of greatness at times, until June 22nd.  That’s the date Carlos Beltran went on the DL.

The Mets were 35-33 at that point, but have consistently underperformed, going 22-37 since then.  Is this the fact that Beltran was such an integral part of the teams success?  Or was his injury the straw that broke the camel’s back?

His bat was on fire this season, and has been sorely missed.  He’s a true five tool player, and a nagging knee injury has threatened his career.  I hope we see him back at full strength next season, but it’s not definite.

In my humble opinion, the Mets at full strength may have made the playoffs, but they were never a championship caliber team.  They were likely not even the best team in the NL East, especially after the Phillies traded to get Cliff Lee.

The injuries are simply masking the problems that were there anyway, and may be there for years to come.

It’s been said that the Mets are on a budget for next season, so these problems may be here for a while.  One solution may be trading away some of the core players that we’ve grown to love so much in New York.  If I had to part with anyone, it would be Jose Reyes.

He’s a great defensive short stop, and a spark plug every time he takes the field, but he’s severely over rated as a lead off hitter.  Sure he steals a lot of bases, but that’s not the job of a lead off hitter, his job is purely to get on base.

Reyes has a career OBP of .337.  You don’t have to look far to find what I would consider a great lead off hitter, Derek Jeter.  Jeter has a career OBP of .387, and has put up one as high as .438.

The rest of the core, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, would all retire as Mets if I had any say.

I’ve been looking forward with hope for 2010, but the truth is, we may have a lot more disappointment in our near future.

A lot has been said about David Wright’s hot and cold streaks so far this season.  It’s time to take a look at the numbers.  I’ve charted Wright’s batting average for each game as the season has moved forward.  It seems that Wright had steady growth from the 18th game of the season all the way up to the 41st, increasing his average from .271 to .362.  In the 10 games following, Wright’s average dropped a full 41 points to .321.  In that span, in his 35 at bats, Wright struck out 13 times with only 6 hits and 4 walks.  From game 52 to game 62, Wright brought his average right back up to .365, in a span where it seemed he could not be retired.  Wright had 24 hits and 7 walks in 43 at bats while only striking out 7 times during an 11 game hitting streak.  Since that streak ended, Wright has failed to get on base in 3 of the last 6 games, striking out 9 times.  One ray of hope for Wright is that he notched 3 hits in the Mets loss last night without striking out.  Maybe this slump will be a shortened version of the one he pulled himself out of after 10 games earlier this month.

Wright’s batting average has been a talking point for the Mets announcers all season.  Instead of talking about how well Wright is hitting, how about they discuss his lack of RBI?

Wright is on pace for 94 RBI this season.  Sure that’s a decent number for most players, but it’s well below the production we saw last year.  He only has 8 multi-RBI games on the season so far.  To date, Wright has been to the plate with a total of 232 runners on base and is responsible for 17%, or 39 of them scoring.  That percentage is on par with Wright’s career percentage of 18%, and is only 2 percentage points off of last years 19%, a year where Wright drove in 124 runs.  The lack of production must be coming from other areas.  Possibly a lack of base runners in front of Wright?  A lack of protection behind him?  Both are possibilities due to the injuries of Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado.  The Mets are also not making things easy for themselves by giving up extra outs.  The team as a whole has been caught stealing 20 times, although 8 of those can be attributed to Wright himself.  They have also made 36 outs on base, be it trying to advance on a fly ball out, or trying to leg out an extra base on a hit, which is the most in the Major Leagues. These types of mistakes shorten innings, giving you less of a chance to score runs.  When your team is not hitting home runs to create instant offense, you need to manufacture runs, and running yourself out of an inning makes that a lot tougher.

I’m going to the games tonight and tomorrow.  Hopefully it doesn’t suck as much as I fear it might.  It should be fun to see Citi Field try and contain a ball off Albert Pujols’ bat.

Let’s…
Go…

Never mind

There’s no way not to have an downgrade in your intensity level when you go from playing your division rival to playing the Pirates.  The Mets showed some of this let down on defense last night.  Jose Reyes had a few misplays. Carlos Beltran inexplicably did not take control on a fly ball hit to right center.  Jonathon Niese had Njyer Morgan picked off of first but his throw sailed over Carlos Delgado’s head.

The good news is, the defense was the only bad news about last night’s game.  The starting pitching was as good as could be expected, the line up drove in 7 runs, and the bullpen held the lead, despite JJ Putz shaking some rust off in the 9th.  It was nice to see the team score some runs after the 4th inning which is not something that happens a lot.  Carlos Delgado’s home run was impressive.  He seems to be heating up and will hopefully return to the form he had during the 2nd half of last season.  Carlos Beltran stayed hot, getting the rally started in the 8th inning with an RBI single.  Even Jose Reyes got in on the action with 2 hits.

The Mets go for 6 in a row this afternoon.

Let’s go Mets!

The Mets left Atlanta yesterday with a sweep of the 2 game series, finishing their rain shortened road trip 3-1 overall.  May has been a more forgiving month than April so far to say the least.  Yesterday’s win was quite an adventure.  The kind of adventure that in recent years, would have ended a little differently.  Luckily Frankie Rodriguez has nerves of steel.

Carlos Delgado made the game a little less interesting, by knocking a 2 run single to center expanding the lead to 3 runs.  Then he made the game a lot more interesting by dropping what would have been the final out on a routine pop-up that gave the Braves a second chance and allowing Larry Jones to come to bat with the tying run 90 feet away and the go ahead run on first.  Anyone that’s followed the Mets through the last 10 years, fully expected Larry to come through with a game tying, if not a game winning hit in that situation.  Larry after all, is a Met Killer.  So much so that he named his son Shea, referring to his dominance at Shea Stadium.  Larry lined out to right on a ball that looked like it was destined to find the gap off the bat and caused me to hold my breath until it made it to the glove of Ryan Church.

What are some good things we can take from this shortened series?

1. Livan Hernadez can still throw a great game.  He can hit the strike zone, keeping his pitch count low.  He doens’t strike many out, but he also doesn’t walk anyone.  He will eat innings, giving your bullpen a rest when it needs it.  And of course, he throws the Eephus pitch which is very entertaining.

2. Carlos Beltran is hitting like it’s the post season.  Maybe missing the playoffs for the last two seasons has got his cycles off.  Let’s hope he stays confused all season.  He’s driving the ball to all fields with power.  He’s leading the National League in hits with 38, batting average at .404, and on base percentage at .504.  These are the types of numbers that Mets fans have been waiting for since he was signed in 2005.

3. Jose Reyes is Willie Mays Hayes, and I want to see him do push ups at home plate every time he pops the ball up.  His batting average is dropping faster than sales at Dunder Mifflin before their buy out of the Michael Scott Paper Company.  He’s shown a general malaise offensively that is effecting every at bat.  He was asked to sacrifice bunt twice on this road trip and failed on both occaisons, looking more like he was trying to drag bunt for a hit.  His on bace percentage is the lowest among the regular starters at .342.  Is there a chance he gets moved out of the leadoff spot until he gets things going?  A leadoff hitter gets more at bats per game than anyone else in your lineup on average so why give that spot to the guy on your team who gets on base the least?

Johan goes today against the Phillies as the Mets make another attempt to get to .500.  Last time Santana was in this position, he threw a gem and has his win taken away by JJ Putz.  Hopefully things go better tonight.

Let’s Go Mets!